RSI(30) above/below 50.

Percentage of S&P stocks above their 5 DMA: 92.97

50/200 Upside Crossover - on SPX, from 1960 to 2010.

IF average(Close, 50) crosses above average(Close, 200) THEN buy this bar at close;
IF BarsSinceEntry = timeEXIT then sell this bar at close;

If the 50 SMA crosses above the 200 SMA, BUY.  Sell 210 days later (this timed exit has been optimized but the second screenshot shows the outcome of chosing other holding periods).

This equity curve assumes the optimized timed exit (210 days) - tested in 10 day increments, from 10-250 day holding periods.

The next screenshot shows the P&Ls for each increment.  In other words, when timeEXIT = 10, 20, 30,..., 250.  So, after 10 days, for example, going long after a 50/200 crossover, is historically profitable 68% of the time.  After 210 days, it's profitable 87.5% of the time, historically.

50/200 Downside Crossover - on SPX, from 1960 to 2010.

IF average(Close, 50) crosses below average(Close, 200)
THEN sellshort this bar at close;

IF BarsSinceEntry = timeEXIT then buytocover this bar at close;
IF average(Close, 50) crosses above average(Close, 200) then buytocover this bar at close;

This test is the same as previous one, but instead of buying when the 50 crosses above the 200, it shorts when the 50 crosses BELOW the 200.  This test adds the caveat that if the 50 SMA crosses above the 200 SMA, buy to cover.

Equity Curve

Optimization report

Finally, this alternate test assumes you're always in the market.  Long, if the 50 SMA > 200 SMA and short when the 50 SMA < 200 SMA. (click to enlarge)